PSC/IR 265 (2014)

PSC/IR 265: Civil War and International Systems
William Spaniel
Spring 2014
Lecture: Tu/Th 3:25-4:40 Meliora 203
Office Hours: W 2:15-4:15 Harkness 109A
Email: (Do NOT email my address.)
YouTube Playlist

The Final
Here is a draft of it. You have the option of taking it on April 29 in class or at the regularly scheduled final date and time. April 24, previously scheduled as a lecture date, is now a review session.

Topic 13: Insurgency
Lecture: Causes of Insurgency, Wrap Up

Slides: Here

Readings: Ethnicity, Insurgency, and Civil War

Topic 12: Terrorism
Lecture: Oudbidding, Spoiling

Slides: Here

Readings: The Strategic Logic of Suicide Terrorism, Design, Inference, and the Strategic Logic of Suicide Terrorism, Palestinian Suicide Bombing: Public Support, Market Share, and Outbidding, Sabotaging the Peace: The Politics of Extremist Violence

Optional Reading: Methods and Findings in the Study of Suicide Terrorism (This is Pape’s response to Ashworth et al.)

Topic 11: Problems with Intervention
Lecture: Moral Hazard

Slides: Here

Readings: Give War a Chance

Topic 10: Biased Intervention
Lecture: Did Slavery Cause the American Civil War?, Intervention as a Cause of War

Slides: Here

Readings: Outside Options and the Logic of Security Council Action

Optional Reading: “Lincoln’s Gamble: Bargaining Failure, British Recognition, and the Start of the American Civil War

Topic 9: Intervention
Lecture: The Post Civil War Commitment Problem, The Critical Barrier to Civil War Settlement, Costly Signaling, The Iraq Surge

Slides: Here

Readings: “The Critical Barrier to Civil War Settlement,” “Countering the New Orthodoxy: Reinterpreting Counterinsurgency in Iraq,” and “Obstacles to Ending Syria’s Civil War

Note from the updated syllabus that I have moved “Outside Options and the Logic of the Security Council” to after the midterm. “Rational Extremism” and “How the Weak Win Wars” have also been removed from the weeks on terrorism and insurgency. Sorry for this. It’s my first time teaching this class, and I’m trying to make sure not to overload you with work.

Topic 8: Predation and Protection
Lecture: State Predation, The Responsibility to Protect, Hurdles to Intervention

Slides: Here

Readings: “War Making and State Making as Organized Crime,” ““The Responsibility to Protect,” and “Rwanda in Retrospect

Topic 7: The Conflict Trap
Lecture: The Conflict Trap, Breaking the Trap

Slides: Here

Readings: Breaking the Conflict Trap (overview and chapter 1 only). Google Books has a prettier (but non-PDF) version of it as well.

Topic 6: Sanctions and Economic Coercion
Lecture: Manipulating Conflict, Why Sanctions Don’t Work, The Hidden Hand of Sanctions, Sanctions and Regime Change, External Subsidies

Slides: Here

Readings: “Why Economic Sanctions Do Not Work” (skip the appendix) and “The Hidden Hand of Economic Coercion

Midterms will be handed back. The average was 89.5%, with a high of 101% and a low of 35%.

Topic 5: Commitment Problems
I have updated the syllabus. Note that the first midterm will cover all readings listed below and no others.

Lecture: Commitment Problems, The Breakdown of Yugoslavia, The Arab Spring, China’s Internet Censorship, The Fall of the Berlin Wall

Slides: Here

Readings: “Ethnic War as a Commitment Problem” and “Why Do Some Civil Wars Last so Much Longer than Others?

Source Material from Class: “Trade, Institutions and Ethnic Tolerance: Evidence from South Asia” and “How Censorship in China Allows Government Criticism but Silences Collective Expression

Topic 4: Reputation and War (2/6)
Lecture: The Chain Store Paradox, Reputation as a Cause of War, Rational Appeasement

Slides: Here

Readings: “Building Reputations” and “Rational Appeasement” (skip the math on 351-362)

Topic 3: Information and War (1/28, 1/30, 2/4)
Lecture: The Iraqi Insurgency, The Ultimatum Game, Risk-Return Tradeoff, Mediation, Predicting Civil War Outbreak, The Black Market for AK-47s, Incentives to Misrepresent, Principle of Convergence, Russia-Georgia War of 2008, Fighting with No Intention to Win

Slides: Part 1, Part 2, Part 3

Readings: “The Principle of Convergence in Wartime Negotiations” (Note that you should skip the technical material on pages 622-626 and in the appendix.)

Topic 2: Bargaining and War (1/21, 1/23)
Here is the problem set. It is due 2/6 and is worth 10% of your overall grade.

Lecture: Bargaining and Lawsuits, Unitary Actor Assumption, Why Bargaining Succeeds, War’s Inefficiency Puzzle, Misconceptions about the Syrian Civil War

Slides: Here

Readings: “Rationalist Explanations for War” (required), Chapter 2 of The Rationality of War (not required, but these are the written notes that I base this week’s lectures on)

Topic 1: Motivation (1/16)
Lecture: Why You Should Care, Macro Trends in Civil War, Overview, What Is a Civil War?

Slides: Here

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