• Credible Commitment in Covert Affairs, with Michael Poznansky. Forthcoming, American Journal of Political Science. [More]
  • Only Here to Help? Bargaining in the Shadow of Mitigation Organizations. Forthcoming, International Studies Quarterly. [More]
  • Terrorism, Signaling, and Delegation. Forthcoming, Quarterly Journal of Political Science [More]
  • Rational Overreaction to Terrorism. Forthcoming, Journal of Conflict Resolution. [More]
  • Getting a Hand By Cutting Them Off: How Uncertainty over Political Corruption Affects Violence, with Paul Zachary. Forthcoming, British Journal of Political Science. [More]
  • Slow to Learn: Bargaining, Uncertainty, and the Calculus of Conquest, with Peter Bils. Forthcoming, Journal of Conflict Resolution. [More]
  • Policy Bargaining and Militarized Conflict, with Peter Bils. Forthcoming, Journal of Theoretical Politics. [More]
  • Introducing 𝜈-CLEAR: A Latent Variable Approach to Measuring Nuclear Proficiency, with Brad Smith. Forthcoming, Conflict Management and Peace Science. [More]
  • How Uncertainty About Judicial Nominees Can Distort the Confirmation Process, with Maya Sen. 2017. Journal of Theoretical Politics 29 (1): 22-47. [More]
  • Multi-Method Research: The Case for Formal Theory, with Hein Goemans. 2016. Security Studies 25 (1): 25-33. [More]
  • Sanctions, Uncertainty, and Leader Tenure, with Brad Smith. 2015. International Studies Quarterly 59 (4): 735-749. [More]
  • Arms Negotiations, War Exhaustion, and the Credibility of Preventive War. 2015. International Interactions 41 (5): 832-856. [More]


  • Bargaining over the Bomb: The Successes and Failures of Nuclear Negotiations. Accepted for publication, Cambridge University Press. [More]

Papers Under Review, Revision, or Resubmission

  • Leaders, Uncertainty, and War, with Brad Smith. Revise and resubmit, Journal of Conflict Resolution. [More]
  • How Fast and How Expensive? Uncertainty and Incentives in Nuclear Negotiations [More]
  • Power Transfers, Military Uncertainty, and War [More]
  • Does Increasing the Costs of Conflict Decrease the Probability of War?, with Iris Malone. [More]
  • Outbidding as Deterrence: Endogenous Demands in the Shadow of Group Competition. [More]
  • Deterring Intervention: The Civil Origins of Nuclear Proliferation, with Zachary Taylor. [More]

Working Papers

  • You Get What You Give: A Model of Nuclear Reversal.
  • Cornering the Market: Optimal Governmental Responses to Competitive Political Violence [More]
  • Bribery and Fair Representation on the United Nations Security Council. [More]

Coming Soon

  • Why Give Nuclear Assistance to Stop Would-Be Proliferators? [Slides]
  • Spatial Models of Militarized Conflict. With Peter Bils and Brad Smith. [Slides]

Non-Political Science Peer Reviewed Publications

  • Responsible Sourcing, Corporate Citizenship, and Baseball: A Framework for Labor Procurement Negotiations in the Talent Supply Chain, with Adrien Bouchet and Mike Troilo. Corporate Governance. [More]
  • Breaking Balls with a Runner on Third: A Game Theoretical Analysis of Optimal Behavior. The Baseball Research Journal (SABR). [More]

6 responses to “Papers

  1. Dear Mr Spaniel,
    I have enjoyed your presentations on You Tube. I have gone to about 500
    baseball games and never caught a foul ball. Perhaps, seat in the upper decks would be better.
    it would be interesting to see your thoughts regarding Iran becoming a nuclear power. Is this not a large game theory exercise?
    Sincerely, Bill Ogorodny

  2. Pingback: New Working Paper on Bunting | William Spaniel

  3. Pingback: SABR42 Day One: Afternoon Presentations & Knuckleball movie | Why I Like Baseball

  4. Thanks for the great website! It looks like some of your papers are chapters from a longer book, but I don’t see all the chapters here. Are they available somewhere?

  5. Jerome Sunley Jr.

    I applaud your style. Helping others to learn and teach is a noble endeavor. I appreciate you taking the time. As a self taught man, your website and instructional videos are invaluable. Thank you.

Leave a Reply

Fill in your details below or click an icon to log in: Logo

You are commenting using your account. Log Out /  Change )

Google+ photo

You are commenting using your Google+ account. Log Out /  Change )

Twitter picture

You are commenting using your Twitter account. Log Out /  Change )

Facebook photo

You are commenting using your Facebook account. Log Out /  Change )


Connecting to %s