• Competition, Terrorism, and the Outbidding Puzzle. With Justin Conrad. Forthcoming, Cambridge University Press.
  • Bargaining over the Bomb: The Successes and Failures of Nuclear Negotiations. 2019. Cambridge University Press. [More]


  • Shooting the Messenger: The Challenge of National Security Whistleblowing, with Michael Joseph and Michael Poznansky. Forthcoming, Journal of Politics. [More]
  • Doubling Down: The Dangers of Disclosing Secret Actions, with Jacob Otto. Forthcoming, International Studies Quarterly. [More]
  • Evaluating the Effects of Nonproliferation Agreements, with Brad Smith. Forthcoming, Journal of Peace Research. [More]
  • High Valuations, Uncertainty, and War, with Iris Malone. Conditionally accepted, Research and Politics. [More]
  • Stall Wars: When Do States Fight to Hold onto the Status Quo? With Peter Bils and Gleason Judd. Forthcoming, International Studies Quarterly. [More]
  • Power Transfers, Military Uncertainty, and War. Forthcoming, Journal of Theoretical Politics [More]
  • Bad-Faith Cooperation, with Michael Poznansky. Forthcoming, International Interactions. [More]
  • Getting a Hand By Cutting Them Off: How Uncertainty over Political Corruption Affects Violence, with Paul Zachary. British Journal of Political Science 50 (2): 457-480. [More]
  • Introducing 𝜈-CLEAR: A Latent Variable Approach to Measuring Nuclear Proficiency, with Brad Smith. Conflict Management and Peace Science 37 (2): 232-256. [More]
  • The Uncertainty Tradeoff: Rexamining Opportunity Costs and War, with Iris Malone. 2019. International Studies Quarterly 63 (4): 1025-1034. [More]
  • Militarized Disputes, Uncertainty, and Leader Tenure, with Brad Smith. Journal of Conflict Resolution 63 (5): 1222-1252. [More]
  • Rational Overreaction to Terrorism. 2019. Journal of Conflict Resolution 63 (3): 786-810. [More]
  • Credible Commitment in Covert Affairs, with Michael Poznansky. 2018. American Journal of Political Science 62 (3): 668-681. [More]
  • Only Here to Help? Bargaining and the Perverse Incentives of International Institutions. 2018. International Studies Quarterly 62 (1), 14-22. [More]
  • Terrorism, Signaling, and Delegation. 2018. Quarterly Journal of Political Science 13 (2): 147-172. [More]
  • Slow to Learn: Bargaining, Uncertainty, and the Calculus of Conquest, with Peter Bils. 2018. Journal of Conflict Resolution 62 (4): 774-796. [More]
  • Policy Bargaining and Militarized Conflict, with Peter Bils. 2017. Journal of Theoretical Politics 29 (4), 647-678. [More]
  • How Uncertainty About Judicial Nominees Can Distort the Confirmation Process, with Maya Sen. 2017. Journal of Theoretical Politics 29 (1): 22-47. [More]
  • Multi-Method Research: The Case for Formal Theory, with Hein Goemans. 2016. Security Studies 25 (1): 25-33. [More]
  • Sanctions, Uncertainty, and Leader Tenure, with Brad Smith. 2015. International Studies Quarterly 59 (4): 735-749. [More]
  • Arms Negotiations, War Exhaustion, and the Credibility of Preventive War. 2015. International Interactions 41 (5): 832-856. [More]

Papers Under Review, Revision, or Resubmission

  • How Fast and How Expensive? Uncertainty and Incentives in Nuclear Negotiations [More]
  • Outbidding as Deterrence: Endogenous Demands in the Shadow of Group Competition. [More]
  • Power to the People: Credible Communication in the Quotidian Use of Authoritarian Institutions. With Iza Ding. [More]
  • When Does Hawk Engagement Work? Conflict and Cooperation Under Uncertainty, with Iris Malone. [More]
  • The Goldilocks Principle of Civil War Peacekeeping. With Burcu Savun and Dong Ju Lee [More]

Working Papers

  • Atomic Uncertainty. Book manuscript with Rupal Mehta. Revise and resubmit, Oxford University Press.
  • Why Give Nuclear Assistance to Would-Be Proliferators? [More]
  • You Get What You Give: A Model of Nuclear Reversal. [More]
  • Cornering the Market: Optimal Governmental Responses to Competitive Political Violence. [More]
  • Bribery and Fair Representation on the United Nations Security Council. [More]
  • Deterring Intervention: The Civil Origins of Nuclear Proliferation, with Zachary Taylor. [More]

Non-Political Science Peer Reviewed Publications

  • Responsible Sourcing, Corporate Citizenship, and Baseball: A Framework for Labor Procurement Negotiations in the Talent Supply Chain, with Adrien Bouchet and Mike Troilo. Corporate Governance. [More]
  • Breaking Balls with a Runner on Third: A Game Theoretical Analysis of Optimal Behavior. The Baseball Research Journal (SABR). [More]

6 responses to “Papers

  1. Dear Mr Spaniel,
    I have enjoyed your presentations on You Tube. I have gone to about 500
    baseball games and never caught a foul ball. Perhaps, seat in the upper decks would be better.
    it would be interesting to see your thoughts regarding Iran becoming a nuclear power. Is this not a large game theory exercise?
    Sincerely, Bill Ogorodny

  2. Pingback: New Working Paper on Bunting | William Spaniel

  3. Pingback: SABR42 Day One: Afternoon Presentations & Knuckleball movie | Why I Like Baseball

  4. Thanks for the great website! It looks like some of your papers are chapters from a longer book, but I don’t see all the chapters here. Are they available somewhere?

  5. Jerome Sunley Jr.

    I applaud your style. Helping others to learn and teach is a noble endeavor. I appreciate you taking the time. As a self taught man, your website and instructional videos are invaluable. Thank you.

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