PS 1514: Political Strategy in International Relations
William Spaniel
Spring 2020
Lecture: Tu/Th 11:00-12:15, Lawrence Hall 232
Office Hours: Posvar Hall 4446, Tu 12:30-2:30
Email: williamspaniel@gmail.com
PS 1514, COVID-19 Style
Full Playlist
If you want to divide the course into some smaller segments, here is how I would suggest doing it:
More on Complete Information
The Corner Solution to the Ultimatum Game
Shrinking Pie Costs
Issue Invisibility
Issue Indivisibility as a Commitment Problem
Uncertainty
Introduction to Incomplete Information
Binary Uncertainty over Costs
Does Uncertainty Cause War?
Neutrality
Binary Uncertainty over Power
Cheap Talk and Incentives to Misrepresent
Peace Premiums, Part I
Introduction to Peace Premiums
Higher Costs Can Cause More War
Corner Solution to Uncertainty over Resolve
Comparative Statics on Corner Solution
Peace Premiums, Part II
Higher Resolve and Promote Peace
Corner Solution to Uncertainty over Costs
Comparative Statics on Corner Solution
Peace Premiums, Part III
Uncertainty over Spoils
Comparative Statics
2/27: Preventive War
Notes were distributed via email.
2/25: Discounting and Stalling
Lectures: Discount Factors, Geometric Series
Note that the two lectures were created for a different purpose and therefore do not exactly match what is necessary for class. Please see the appendix chapter distributed via email for a more precise description.
2/20: First Strike Advantages and Preemptive War
Lecture: Preemptive War
2/11, 2/13, and 2/18: War’s Inefficiency Puzzle
Lectures: Algebraic Bargaining Model of War, War’s Bargaining Range, Crisis Bargaining
1/30: Comparative Statics
Lectures: Probability Distributions, Generalized Battle of the Sexes, Penalty Kicks, Establishing Causation, Comparative Statics (with Derivatives), Comparative Statics (without Derivatives)
1/28: Subgame Perfect Equilibrium
Lectures: Subgame Perfect Equilibrium, Backward Induction, How NOT to Write a Subgame Perfect Equilibrium, Commitment Problems, Multiple Subgame Perfect Equilibria
1/23: Calculating Payoffs
Lectures: Battle of the Sexes, Calculating Payoffs
1/16: Mixed Strategies
Lectures: Mixed Strategy Nash Equilibrium, The Mixed Strategy Algorithm, How NOT to Write a Mixed Strategy Nash Equilibrium
1/14: Nash Equilibrium
Lectures: Stag Hunt and Pure Strategy Nash Equilibrium, What Is a Nash Equilibrium?, Best Responses
1/9: Strict Dominance
Lectures: The Prisoner’s Dilemma and Strictly Dominated Strategies, Iterated Elimination of Strictly Dominated Strategies
1/7: Introduction
If you’d like to preview the first month’s worth of materials, check this playlist:
William Spaniel 