PSC/IR 265: Civil War and International Systems
William Spaniel
Spring 2015
Lecture: Tu/Th 3:25-4:40 Meliora 203
Office Hours: M 12:00-2:00 Harkness 320B
Email: williamspaniel@gmail.com (Do NOT email my rochester.edu address.)
Syllabus
YouTube Playlist
Problem Set #1 (Solutions), Problem Set #2
Topic 15: Insurgency
Slides: Here
Lecture: Causes of Insurgency
Readings: Ethnicity, Insurgency, and Civil War
Topic 14: Terrorism
Slides: Here
Lecture: Oudbidding, Spoiling
Readings: The Strategic Logic of Suicide Terrorism, Design, Inference, and the Strategic Logic of Suicide Terrorism
Topic 13: Post-Cold War Developments
Slides: Here
Readings: Outside Options and the Logic of Security Council Action, Coups and Democracy
Topic 12: Economic Coercion
Slides: Here
Readings: Why Economic Sanctions Do Not Work, The Hidden Hand of Economic Coercion
Readings: The Hidden Hand of Economic Sanctions, Sanctions and Regime Change
Topic 11: The Conflict Trap
Slides: Here
Readings: Breaking the Conflict Trap (overview and chapter 1 only). Google Books has a prettier (but non-PDF) version of it as well.
Lecture: The Conflict Trap, Breaking the Trap
Topic 10: Issues with Intervention
Slides: Here
Readings: Give War a Chance, Lincoln’s Gamble
Lecture: Did Slavery Cause the American Civil War?, Intervention as a Cause of War, Moral Hazard
Topic 9: Neutral Intervention
Slides: Here
Readings: The Critical Barrier to Civil War Settlement, Countering the New Orthodoxy: Reinterpreting Counterinsurgency in Iraq, Obstacles to Ending Syria’s Civil War
Lecture: The Post Civil War Commitment Problem, The Critical Barrier to Civil War Settlement, Costly Signaling, The Iraq Surge
Topic 8: Mediation
Slides: Here
Readings: When Is Shuttle Diplomacy Worth the Commute?
Lecture: The Limitations of Mediation
Topic 7: Mechanism Design
Slides: Here
Lecture: Mechanism Design, Incentive Compatibility, The Revelation Principle Pt. 1, The Revelation Principle Pt. 2, When Can We Guarantee Peace?, Is War Unavoidable?
Readings: Uncertainty and Incentives in Crisis Bargaining: Game-Free Analysis of International Conflict, External Subsidies and Lasting Peace
Topic 6: Coordination Problems
Slides: Here
Lecture: The Arab Spring, China’s Internet Censorship, The Fall of the Berlin Wall
Readings: Why Do Some Civil Wars Last Longer than Others?, How Censorship in China Allows Government Criticism but Silences Collective Expression
Topic 5: Commitment Problems
No office hours Wednesday. (I held them on Monday to facilitate problem set questions.) My other class is in a similar boat next week, so I will be holding office hours next Monday (2/16) from noon to 2 pm. There will be no office hours next Wednesday (2/18).
Slides: Here
Lecture: Commitment Problems, The Breakdown of Yugoslavia
Readings: “Ethnic War as a Commitment Problem”
Source Material from Class: “Trade, Institutions and Ethnic Tolerance: Evidence from South Asia”
Topic 4: Reputation and War
Slides: Here
Lecture: The Chain Store Paradox, Reputation as a Cause of War, Rational Appeasement
Readings: “Building Reputations” and “Rational Appeasement” (skip the math on 351-362)
Topic 3: Information and War
Slides: Here, also AK-47 vs. M16
Lecture: The Ultimatum Game, Risk-Return Tradeoff, Predicting Civil War Outbreak, The Black Market for AK-47s, Incentives to Misrepresent, Principle of Convergence, Russia-Georgia War of 2008, Fighting with No Intention to Win
Readings: “The Principle of Convergence in Wartime Negotiations” (Note that you should skip the technical material on pages 622-626 and in the appendix.)
Topic 2: Bargaining and War
Here is the problem set. It is due 2/10 and is worth 20% of your overall grade.
Lecture: Bargaining and Lawsuits, Unitary Actor Assumption, Why Bargaining Succeeds, War’s Inefficiency Puzzle, Misconceptions about the Syrian Civil War, Why the Iraqi Insurgency Began
Slides: Here
Readings: “Rationalist Explanations for War” (required), Chapter 2 of The Rationality of War (not required, but these are the written notes that I base this week’s lectures on)
Topic 1: Motivation
Slides: Here
Lecture: Why You Should Care, Macro Trends in Civil War, Overview, What Is a Civil War?
William Spaniel 