The Nefarious Reason to Draw on Jeopardy

Arthur Chu, current four-day champion on Jeopardy!, has made a lot of waves around the blogosphere with his unusual play style. (Among other things, he hunts all over the board for Daily Doubles, has waged strange dollar amounts when getting one, and clicks loudly when ringing in.) What has garnered the most attention, though, is his determination to play for the draw. On three occasions, Arthur has had the opportunity to bet enough to eliminate his opponent from the show. Each time, he has bet enough so that if his opponent wagers everything, he or she will draw with Arthur.

It is worth noting that draws aren’t the worst thing in Jeopardy. Unlike just about all other game shows, there is no sudden death mechanism. Instead, both players “win” and become co-champions, keeping the money accumulated from that game and coming back to play again the next day. There is no cost to you as the player; Jeopardy! foots the bill.

Why is Arthur doing this? The links provided above give two reasons. First, there have been instances where betting $1 more than enough to force a draw has resulted in the leader ultimately losing the game. Betting more than the absolute minimum necessary to ensure that you get to stay the next day thus has some risks. Second, if your opponents know that you will bet to draw, it induces them to wager all of their money. This is advantageous to the leader in case everyone gets the clue wrong.

That second point might be a little complicated, so an example might help. Suppose the leader had $20,000, second place had $15,000, and third place died in the middle of the taping. If the leader wagers $10,000, second place might sensibly wager $15,000 to force the draw if she thought she had a good chance of responding correctly. If only one is correct, that person wins. If they are both right, they draw. If both are wrong, second place goes bankrupt and the leader wins with $10,000.

Compare that to what happens if the leader wagers $10,001 (enough to guarantee victory with a correct response) and second place wagers $5,000. All outcomes remain the same except when both are wrong. Now the leader drops to $9,999 and the person trailing previously wins with $10,000.

Sure, these are good reasons to play to draw, but I think there is something more nefarious going on. Arthur knows he is better than the contestants he has been beating. One of the easiest ways to lose as Jeopardy! champion is to play a game against someone who is better than you. So why would you want to get rid of contestants that you are better than? Creating a co-champion means that the producers will draw one less person from the contestant pool for the next game, meaning there is one less chance you will play against someone better than you. This is nefarious because it looks nice–he is allowing second place to take home thousands and thousands of dollars more than they would be able to otherwise–but really he is saying “hey, you are bad at this game, so please keep playing with me!”

In addition, his alleged kindness might even be reciprocated one day. Perhaps someone he permits a draw to will one day have the lead going into Final Jeopardy. Do you think that contestant is going to play for the win or the draw? Well, if Arthur is going to keep that person on the gravy train for match after match, I suspect that person is going to give Arthur the opportunity to draw.

It’s nefarious. Arthur’s draws could spread like some sort of vile plague.

One response to “The Nefarious Reason to Draw on Jeopardy

  1. Pingback: Jeopardy’s Game Theory Irony | William Spaniel

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