If you are interested in the game theory of baseball, you should head over to my working papers page. I just uploaded a new article on optimal hitting strategy during a no hitter. As it turns out, a batter can never bunt with a no hitter in progress and still maximize his team’s probability of victory. The article has a full proof of the claim.
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- Arms Negotiations, War Exhaustion, and the Credibility of Preventive War
- Bad-Faith Cooperation
- Bargaining over Costly Signals
- Bargaining over the Bomb: The Successes and Failures of Nuclear Negotiations
- Bribery and Fair Representation on the United Nations Security Council
- Cornering the Market: Optimal Governmental Responses to Competitive Political Violence
- Credible Commitment in Covert Affairs
- Deterring Intervention: The Civil Origins of Nuclear Proliferation
- Do Nonproliferation Agreements Constrain?
- Doubling Down: The Dangers of Disclosing Secret Actions
- Getting a Hand By Cutting Them Off: How Uncertainty over Political Corruption Affects Violence
- High Valuations, Uncertainty, and War
- How Fast and How Expensive? Uncertainty and Incentives in Nuclear Negotiations
- How Uncertainty About Judicial Nominees Can Distort the Confirmation Process
- Introducing 𝜈-CLEAR: A Latent Variable Approach to Measuring Nuclear Proficiency
- Issue Indivisibility as a Cause of Peace
- Militarized Disputes, Uncertainty, and Leader Tenure
- Multi-Method Research: A Case for Formal Theory
- Only Here to Help? Bargaining and the Perverse Incentives of International Institutions
- Outbidding as Deterrence: Endogenous Demands in the Shadow of Group Competition
- Policy Bargaining and Militarized Conflict
- Power to the People: Credible Communication in the Quotidian Use of Authoritarian Institutions
- Power Transfers, Military Uncertainty, and War
- Rational Overreaction to Terrorism
- Sanctions, Uncertainty, and Leader Tenure
- Scientific Intelligence, Nuclear Assistance, and Bargaining
- Shooting the Messenger: The Challenge of National Security Whistleblowing
- Slow to Learn: Bargaining, Uncertainty, and the Calculus of Conquest
- Stall Wars: When Do States Fight to Hold onto the Status Quo?
- Terrorism, Signaling, and Delegation
- The Uncertainty Trade-off: Reexamining Opportunity Costs and War
- When Technocratic Appointments Signal Credibility
- You Get What You Give: A Model of Nuclear Reversal
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William Spaniel 